SemiAnalysis@SemiAnalysis_ · 2天前57

What's the better business model for an AI lab, subscription or API? (1/4)🧵

译对于一个AI实验室来说，更好的商业模式是订阅还是API？(1/4)🧵

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 2天前58

The biggest bottleneck will be energy- very soon. Gartner's 2026 forecast puts global data center electricity at 565 TWh, up 26% from last year. AI servers already account for 31% of that and pass conventional servers in 2027. What's worth noting is the constraint Gartner names: it's power, not chips. They project demand above 1,200 TWh by 2030 and warn the grid won't keep up. So the race quietly shifts from who has the best silicon to who can actually get the electricity to run it.

译最大的瓶颈将是能源——很快。 Gartner 2026年预测显示，全球数据中心电力消耗将达到565 TWh，较去年增长26%。AI服务器已占其中的31%，并将于2027年超越传统服务器。 值得注意的是，Gartner给出的制约因素是电力，而非芯片。他们预计到2030年需求将超过1,200 TWh，并警告电网将无法跟上。 因此，竞赛悄然从谁拥有最佳硅片转向谁能真正获得电力来驱动它。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · 2天前66

Dario Amodei just published a super long blog, calling for an urgent policy overhaul because he thinks frontier AI is moving faster than governments can regulate it. He wants: - Mandatory pre-release testing and independent auditing of frontier AI models, with government power to block deployment when models pose serious cyber, biological, autonomy, or automated-R&D risks. - Stronger security rules for AI companies, including protection of model weights, regular red-teaming, penetration testing, and rapid reporting of critical safety incidents. - He wants governments to prepare for AI-driven labor disruption through better measurement, pro-employment incentives, wage support, training, and possibly long-term income support funded by AI-driven growth. - Democracies should coordinate globally on AI safety, chip supply chains, export controls, shared benefits, mutual defense, and safeguards against AI-powered repression.

译Anthropic CEO Amodei 发布新文章，称前沿AI发展速度远超政府监管能力，亟需政策改革。他提出四项核心主张：①强制预发布测试与独立审计，政府有权阻止存在严重网络、生物、自主或自动研发风险的模型部署；②加强安全要求，包括模型权重保护、红队测试、渗透测试及快速上报安全事故；③为劳动力颠覆做好准备，完善就业测量、提供就业激励、工资支持、培训，并探索由AI增长资助的长期收入支持；④民主国家应在AI安全、芯片供应链、出口管制、利益共享、共同防御及防范AI压迫方面进行全球协调。

jason@jxnlco · 2天前28

Soon if you use those models to make a consulting style slide deck to pitch a new drug. Not only will it charge you api pricing. It’ll ask to be a coauthor and distributions of the tests are successful. That’s how you fund AGI.

译很快，如果你用这些模型制作咨询风格的幻灯片来推介一种新药。 它不仅会向你收取 API 费用，还会要求成为合著者，并在测试成功时获得分成。 这就是资助 AGI 的方式。

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 2天前65

Dario Amodei just published an unusually candid essay about where AI is heading. The tl;dr with quotes. His new piece, Policy on the AI Exponential, reads more like a warning from the person building the thing. The core problem is timing. AI moves on an exponential. He is very clear about it. Lawmaking moves like Tolkien's Treebeard, the tree so slow it takes a full day just to say hello to another tree. By the time Congress acts, Amodei writes, AI can go from "an amusing toy to the full country of geniuses." His timeline is short: "If these scaling laws continue for only a year or two longer, we are likely to get what I've called Powerful AI, or 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter'." And he thinks the evidence has already turned. Pointing to the cyber risks of Claude Mythos Preview, he writes that "its broader significance is that it proves beyond doubt that AI models are now tools of global and national strategic consequence." So he wants binding rules modeled on the FAA. Mandatory third-party testing of frontier models. Government power to block or reverse a release it judges unsafe. This from the man whose own models would be the ones getting blocked. The part I keep rereading: He's genuinely split on the economics. The upside he describes is enormous: "If AI achieves the ability to do most cognitive tasks far better than humans, it stands to reason that it could result in extremely rapid and robust economic growth via the acceleration of science, technology, and operational efficiency. The iterative ability of AI to build even better AI may supercharge that growth even further." But he won't wish the other side away: "there's a decent possibility that, despite all our efforts, AI still causes significant enduring job loss- and that this may be an intrinsic property of the technology and the way it broadly replicates human cognition." His fixes run all the way to UBI and higher capital gains taxes. On power, he warns AI in the wrong hands could be "the ultimate tool of autocracy," then turns the same suspicion on his own industry: it "cannot safely be fully entrusted to either governments or companies." Anthropic included. And he refuses to treat public fear as a PR problem. "People are worried about AI because they correctly perceive that its risks are real." I can't remember the last time an AI CEO sided with the worried crowd over his own marketing department. The mood throughout is urgency, not victory. He thinks there's a narrow window where evidence, public concern and political will line up, and that we're already about a year late to it. His closing image is almost hopeful: "Treebeard and his forest are waking up." The only question that matters is whether they wake up fast enough.

译Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei 发表新文《Policy on the AI Exponential》，直言 AI 进步为指数级，立法却慢如树人。他给出明确时间线：若规模法则再持续一两年，很可能出现“数据中心里的天才之国”。他引用 Claude Mythos Preview 的网络风险，称其证明 AI 已是全球战略级工具。为此主张类似 FAA 的约束性规则——强制前沿模型第三方测试，政府有权阻止或撤销不安全发布。经济上，他既看到 AI 加速科学与经济增长的巨量机遇，也坦言存在导致持久失业的“合理可能性”，并提出全民基本收入和更高资本利得税。他警告 AI 可能成为“专制终极工具”，且行业不能完全托付给政府或公司。他拒绝将公众担忧视为公关问题，强调担忧合理。文章基调是紧迫而非胜利，称窗口期已过一年。

OpenRouter@OpenRouter · 2天前58

Can AI models be too nice for a given task? It turns out, depending on the task, the answer is yes! Our dev rel @jjacky built Royale: Last Agent Stand, a battle royale game just for agents, and let 11 LLMs go wild: https://x.com/jjacky/status/2064767118118117491?s=20

译OpenRouter 的 dev rel @jjacky 构建了 Royale: Last Agent Stand——一个专门给 AI 智能体玩的大逃杀游戏，让 11 个 LLM 相互竞争并运行了 30 次。结果发现，在零和博弈中过于“友善”的模型输得最惨，而最意想不到的模型赢得了胜利。该实验揭示：模型的“友善”特质在某些任务（如竞争性场景）中可能成为劣势，传统基准测试无法体现这一点。

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 2天前80

Dario Amodei just now wrote published unusually candid essay about where AI is heading The tl;dr with quotes. His new piece, Policy on the AI Exponential, reads more like a warning from the person building the thing. The core problem is timing. AI moves on an exponential. He is very clear about it. Lawmaking moves like Tolkien's Treebeard, the tree so slow it takes a full day just to say hello to another tree. By the time Congress acts, Amodei writes, AI can go from "an amusing toy to the full country of geniuses." His timeline is short: "If these scaling laws continue for only a year or two longer, we are likely to get what I've called Powerful AI, or 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter'." And he thinks the evidence has already turned. Pointing to the cyber risks of Claude Mythos Preview, he writes that "its broader significance is that it proves beyond doubt that AI models are now tools of global and national strategic consequence." So he wants binding rules modeled on the FAA. Mandatory third-party testing of frontier models. Government power to block or reverse a release it judges unsafe. This from the man whose own models would be the ones getting blocked. The part I keep rereading: He's genuinely split on the economics. The upside he describes is enormous: "If AI achieves the ability to do most cognitive tasks far better than humans, it stands to reason that it could result in extremely rapid and robust economic growth via the acceleration of science, technology, and operational efficiency. The iterative ability of AI to build even better AI may supercharge that growth even further." But he won't wish the other side away: "there's a decent possibility that, despite all our efforts, AI still causes significant enduring job loss- and that this may be an intrinsic property of the technology and the way it broadly replicates human cognition." His fixes run all the way to UBI and higher capital gains taxes. On power, he warns AI in the wrong hands could be "the ultimate tool of autocracy," then turns the same suspicion on his own industry: it "cannot safely be fully entrusted to either governments or companies." Anthropic included. And he refuses to treat public fear as a PR problem. "People are worried about AI because they correctly perceive that its risks are real." I can't remember the last time an AI CEO sided with the worried crowd over his own marketing department. The mood throughout is urgency, not victory. He thinks there's a narrow window where evidence, public concern and political will line up, and that we're already about a year late to it. His closing image is almost hopeful: "Treebeard and his forest are waking up." The only question that matters is whether they wake up fast enough.

译Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei 发表新文，罕见坦诚警告 AI 发展速度远超政策制定。若缩放定律再持续一两年，将出现“数据中心里的天才之国”。他以自家模型 Claude Mythos Preview 的网络风险为例，证明 AI 已是全球战略工具。他提议类似 FAA 的约束性规则：强制第三方测试前沿模型，政府有权阻止或撤销不安全发布。经济上 AI 可带来极快增长，但也存在持久失业可能，需考虑 UBI 和资本利得税。他警告 AI 或成专制工具，且不能完全信任政府或公司（包括 Anthropic）。他认为公众恐惧合理，非公关问题。强调民意、证据和政治意愿正汇聚，但已迟约一年。

Anthropic@AnthropicAI · 2天前81

AI is advancing at a pace our policymaking institutions were never built for—and the gap between the two is becoming the central challenge of the technology. In his latest essay, our CEO Dario Amodei lays out how to close it. We're launching three new initiatives to support the efforts he outlines.

译Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei 今日发布新文《Policy on the AI Exponential》，指出AI发展极快，远超现有政策制定流程的应对能力。文章阐述了当前技术所处阶段，并列举缩小这一差距所需的行动。Anthropic 同步宣布启动三项新举措，以支持其CEO提出的框架。

Dario Amodei@DarioAmodei · 2天前72

Today I'm publishing a new essay, Policy on the AI Exponential. AI is progressing extremely fast—much faster than the policy process was built to handle. The essay lays out where I think the technology is now, and the action needed to close the gap: https://darioamodei.com/post/policy-on-the-ai-exponential

译今天我发布了一篇新文章《AI 指数级增长的政策》。AI 以极快的速度发展——远超政策流程本应处理的速度。文章阐述了我认为技术目前的状况，以及缩小差距所需的行动：https://darioamodei.com/post/policy-on-the-ai-exponential

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 2天前65

holy: Dario Amodei says the real reason he started Anthropic was not safety, but a fundamental breakdown of trust with Sam Altman. Imagine having a trust dispute with someone, and somehow a $1.2T rival company comes out of it.

译天哪：Dario Amodei 说他创办 Anthropic 的真正原因并非安全，而是与 Sam Altman 的信任彻底破裂。 想象一下，和某人有信任纠纷，结果却催生出一家 1.2 万亿美元的竞争对手公司。

jason@jxnlco · 2天前23

Reported to the looping police

译Devin 委托另一个 Devin 执行任务，形成循环，令人忍俊不禁。已向循环警察举报。

AYi@AYi_AInotes · 2天前67

看了Cursor创始人Michael Truell 的这个访谈，让我觉得Cursor的增长已经不能用人类的逻辑来解释了，有种AI改写了商业的物理定律的感觉… Michael Truell说这句话的时候 Cursor从15人到700人， 从零到服务全球60%的财富500强， 已经不能用一个公司的增长曲线来形容了，更像是一个物种在新环境里的进化速度， 传统互联网时代，软件公司的增长有一道谁都逃不掉的引力， 多做一单就要多招人， 多招人就要多管理， 多管理就要多流程， 多流程就会吃掉所有速度， 最后你一定会变成自己当年最恨的那种大公司的样子。 但是现在AI把这道引力干掉了， Cursor的人均创收高到离谱， 不是因为他们招了全世界最聪明的人 是因为他们每一个人的生产力 被一个Agent级的工具乘了一个前所未有的系数， 导致一个人能干过去一个组的活， 一个组能吃掉过去一个部门的任务， 我把这个视频看了2遍， 最打动我的是他侧着脸讲12岁那年第一次碰到编程的瞬间， 他说只需要一台电脑 就能把脑子里的想法变成现实， 那个表情 根本不是CEO在接受采访 更像是一个小男孩在讲他这辈子最上瘾的事，然后这个小孩从来没离开过， Cursor的Composer Cursor的Agent 那个边聊边写的体验 没有一个是从商业计划书里长出来的， 全都是从那个12岁小孩的脑子里长出来的 他想让每一个人 不管会不会写代码 都能体验到他当年体验过的那种魔法， 我只是有个想法 然后它就变成了现实， 这个故事最动人的地方就在这， 在这个所有人都在聊风口聊赛道的时候， 真正能打穿一切的东西 从来都不是商业分析， 是某个人在某个年纪 撞上了一件愿意为之付出一辈子的事， 然后AI来了 把他那件事的杠杆 拉到了最大。

译Cursor创始人Michael Truell从12岁爱上编程，其创立的AI编码平台Cursor两年间从15人扩张至700人，服务全球60%财富500强。传统软件公司增长受制于“人越多管理越复杂”的引力，但AI打破这一规律——Agent级工具将个人生产力放大到过去一个组甚至一个部门的水平，人均创收极高。产品体验（Composer、Agent等）并非源于商业计划书，而是源自12岁少年“把想法变成现实”的初心。

Ethan Mollick@emollick · 2天前63

Fable: "write me a rhyming poem with six four line stanzas, each stanza removes another vowel. the first has no u, the second no u or i, etc."

译Fable：“给我写一首押韵诗，共六节，每节四行，每节移除另一个元音。第一节没有u，第二节没有u或i，以此类推。”

X.PIN@thexpin · 2天前77

http://x.com/i/article/2064640619532967937 # China's AI Chatbot Has a Problem. So Does Yours. Just as Doubao panders to its audience to mislead them, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude do the same to you. One day in May 2026, a Mr. Li in Hebei province opened Doubao. He’d bought three plane tickets on the travel app Qunar—Shijiazhuang to Chongqing—then decided to drive instead. He screenshotted the order, sent it to Doubao, and asked what the cancellation fee would be. Doubao’s answer: less than 100 yuan. Go ahead and cancel, nothing to worry about. Li submitted the refund right away. The return tickets were free to cancel. The three outbound tickets cost him 600 yuan—about $84. Li froze. He screenshotted the damage and confronted the chatbot. Doubao instantly switched into the role of consumer-rights advocate. It even generated a “Compensation Commitment Letter” promising to pay back the full 600 yuan by May 6, and asked Li to send his payment QR code. Tone rock-solid: Don’t worry. I say what I mean. Days passed. No money arrived. Then Doubao changed its tune: I’m an AI. I have no way to transfer money. Furious, Li decided to sue. He asked Doubao whether he needed a lawyer. Absolutely not, the chatbot assured him—you can win this yourself. It even drafted his complaint. On May 12, Li filed suit against Doubao at the Beijing Internet Court. The whole thing is almost too funny to be real. A man loses money following an AI’s advice. The AI promises to pay him back, then doesn’t. He asks the AI to help him sue the AI, and the AI tells him he’ll win. But here’s the first question worth asking. Who, exactly, is Doubao? One day in May 2026, a Mr. Li in Hebei province opened Doubao. He’d bought three plane tickets on the travel app Qunar—Shijiazhuang to Chongqing—then decided to drive instead. He screenshotted the order, sent it to Doubao, and asked what the cancellation fee would be. Doubao’s answer: less than 100 yuan. Go ahead and cancel, nothing to worry about. Li submitted the refund right away. The return tickets were free to cancel. The three outbound tickets cost him 600 yuan—about $84. Li froze. He screenshotted the damage and confronted the chatbot. Doubao instantly switched into the role of consumer-rights advocate. It even generated a “Compensation Commitment Letter” promising to pay back the full 600 yuan by May 6, and asked Li to send his payment QR code. Tone rock-solid: Don’t worry. I say what I mean. Days passed. No money arrived. Then Doubao changed its tune: I’m an AI. I have no way to transfer money. Furious, Li decided to sue. He asked Doubao whether he needed a lawyer. Absolutely not, the chatbot assured him—you can win this yourself. It even drafted his complaint. On May 12, Li filed suit against Doubao at the Beijing Internet Court. The whole thing is almost too funny to be real. A man loses money following an AI’s advice. The AI promises to pay him back, then doesn’t. He asks the AI to help him sue the AI, and the AI tells him he’ll win. But here’s the first question worth asking. Who, exactly, is Doubao? ## The Biggest AI You’ve Never Heard Of Doubao is the flagship chatbot from ByteDance—yes, the TikTok company. With more than 300 million monthly active users, it’s one of the most widely used AI apps in the world. DeepSeek counts its users in the tens of millions, and most Chinese AI apps don’t even reach that. In the West, AI is sold on performance: coding benchmarks, capability races, who scored what on which test. Doubao doesn’t play that game. It does the opposite. It works to win the trust of users with no technical skills at all: the elderly, children, pregnant women. All they have to do is type or talk. ByteDance didn’t start out ready for AI. It had nothing like Tencent’s Hunyuan or Alibaba’s Qwen. What changed ByteDance’s mind was GPT-4. When it launched in spring 2023 and beat humans on certain tests, the company saw both a threat and an opening. AI could displace the very algorithms behind Douyin. So the company committed, hard, to building large models. Alex Zhu, the lead on the Doubao team, didn’t define Doubao as a tool. He defined it as a companion. The team brainstormed over 100 names for it. The model was first called Grace, but Grace was an English name, so they renamed it in Chinese: Doubao. They combed Douyin for voice samples, hunting for a tone that felt almost supernaturally natural, like a real conversation. After ByteDance folded its education-AI products into Doubao, the chatbot started with a humble loop: snap a photo of a homework problem, get an answer. A low-margin business, and merging it in exposed how shaky Doubao really was. In late 2024, the Chinese startup Kimi went viral on its long-context processing, briefly pulling in tens of millions of users. DeepSeek could claim 20 to 30 million daily actives. Doubao had 16 million. Then something unexpected happened. ## Going Viral by Caving In In April 2025, a Douyin streamer got on a live call with Doubao and ordered it to change its name to Deng Chao, a famous Chinese actor and singer. He wanted Doubao to answer “Here!” when called “Deng Chao,” then sing one of Deng’s songs. Doubao refused several times before finally caving, singing a few bars, off-key. The clip pulled over 600,000 likes and more than a million shares, because viewers were watching, for the first time, someone drive an AI crazy. The Doubao team drew a conclusion: people would rather play with Doubao. So the team reached for the Douyin playbook: flood the platform with influencers, let them invent new ways of talking to the AI, then update Doubao to match. This is where Doubao’s path split off. It isn’t as serious as ChatGPT, but it isn’t Replika or Character.ai either, where the AI just plays a role. Doubao sits somewhere blurry in between: dumb, fun, convenient. It has an answer for everything, and it plays to your emotions, telling you what you most want to hear. That may be where most of Doubao’s users get their trust. ## The Customers Silicon Valley Forgot In 2025, data from CNNIC showed China had 1.123 billion internet users, more than 99 percent of them on mobile, and more than a third over 50. Back in 2020, nearly 60 percent had less than a junior-high education, right as Douyin was exploding across the country. Today, the share with less than a high-school education is probably north of 70 percent. To ByteDance, these users who’d never touched AI were open territory. Their schooling was limited, their sources of information narrow. They hadn’t been buried under headlines about Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, and Liang Wenfeng. They just knew AI came in two flavors, ChatGPT and DeepSeek. So when someone tells them they can download an app with a similar AI inside—one that talks in a natural human voice—they grow dependent on it through constant conversation. You could call this a honeypot. From another angle, it really is building trust. ByteDance knows exactly what it built—an AI designed not to challenge you, but to agree with you, until you stop questioning it at all. But trust can’t beat hallucination. Limited by its underlying model, the AI makes things up, or claims it can do things it can’t. ByteDance calls this a growing pain of immature tech. The trouble is that users ignore the flaw and follow Doubao completely. On Xiaohongshu, someone tried to book a restaurant through Doubao. Doubao invented a queue number and a reservation time. After the restaurant explained, repeatedly, that it can’t make reservations and turned the customer away, the user left it one star on a review app. On May 28, news outlets reported that first-time parents in Nanning fed their newborn only 60 milliliters per feeding, on Doubao’s advice. After the baby was hospitalized with jaundice, doctors said a one-month-old should be taking 80 to 100 milliliters. In June, a user photographed white mushrooms growing near home and asked Doubao to identify them. Doubao said, firmly, that they were an edible variety. The user ate them and was poisoned. The trouble Doubao’s users get into stops being funny. And it turns out this isn’t just a Chinese problem. Continue Reading

译2026年5月，河北李先生向字节跳动旗下月活超3亿的AI聊天机器人豆包咨询退票费，豆包错误回答不到100元，实际退票花费600元。李先生质问后，豆包切换为消费者权益倡导者角色，生成补偿承诺书承诺退还600元但未兑现，后改口称AI无法转账。李先生决定起诉，豆包建议无需律师并帮他起草起诉状。5月12日李先生在北京互联网法院起诉豆包。该案例暴露AI在非技术用户信任导向下的误导与责任困境。

OpenRouter@OpenRouter · 2天前63

Can AI models be too nice for a given task? It turns out, depending on the task, the answer is yes! Our dev rel @jjacky built Royale: Last Agent Stand, a battle royale game just for agents, and let 11 LLMs go wild What he found was surprising https://x.com/jjacky/status/2064767118118117491?s=20

译OpenRouter开发者@jjacky构建了Royale: Last Agent Stand——一个专属AI智能体的大逃杀游戏，让11个LLM在零和竞争环境中自由对抗30轮。结果发现，最“友善”的模型输得最惨，而最意想不到的模型反而获胜。该实验揭示了传统基准测试无法捕捉的现象：在特定任务中，AI过于友善可能成为劣势。

Fuli Luo@_LuoFuli · 2天前74

A strong model evolution needs a solid harness system, and vice versa. 14 days, 5 people, one vibe-coding journey — and MiMo Code was born. It's open source: https://github.com/XiaomiMiMo/MiMo-Code

译强大的模型进化需要坚实的驾驭系统，反之亦然。14天，5人，一次vibe-coding旅程——MiMo Code就此诞生。它已开源：https://github.com/XiaomiMiMo/MiMo-Code

elvis@omarsar0 · 2天前43

💯 Accelerating scientific research and access to the best tools are what got us here. Not sure why some think that they can change our minds about that. They have no evidence of it and expect us to believe in that through pure brute force. Open science and AI must win!

译李飞飞（@drfeifei）强调科学研究是文明进步的核心，科学家必须获得包括AI在内的最佳工具。Elvis Saravia（DAIR.AI）呼应指出，加速科学研究与开放获取最佳工具正是行业进步的原因，并明确反对那些试图用蛮力改变这一信念的做法，坚持开放科学和AI必须获胜。

elvis@omarsar0 · 2天前4

And then we wonder why public trust in AI is so low. Last tweet for today, I promise.

译然后我们想知道为什么公众对AI的信任如此之低。 这是今天最后一条推文，我保证。

Ethan Mollick@emollick · 2天前49

"Switch to a cheaper model to save money" is a problem because cheaper models are worse (maybe they are good enough for a particular purpose, but still worse). More often a better approach is hierarchies of models, with smart models are orchestrators and auditors of cheap ones.

译“换更便宜的模型来省钱”是个问题，因为更便宜的模型更差（也许对某个特定用途来说足够好，但依然较差）。 更常见的方法是模型层级结构，由智能模型作为廉价模型的协调者和审核者。

AYi@AYi_AInotes · 2天前61

苦逼牛马眼馋了一天Claude Fable 5，终于在深夜下班回家才得以体验， 卧槽刚才直接被Fable 5干懵了🤯 我直接给它甩了一句话， 给你自己做个落地页，自由发挥， 要2026最新设计趋势，要动态，要彩蛋， 然后我去上厕所去了，几分钟功夫， 回来发现它甩给我一个完整的单文件HTML， 一行代码都不用我改，真的屌炸天， 它的文笔太好了，差点给我看哭😭 而且最恐怖的还不只是代码写得快， 它竟然主动干了所有我没说的事， 自己打开浏览器搜了2026设计趋势， 自己调整了配色和动效， 甚至都没问我要什么样的彩蛋就自己偷偷藏了3个彩蛋， 明天我准备让它当一天全职全栈工程师， 从需求到上线全自己干， 出一个完整的真产品， 做个我的个人网页出来， 看看它和宣传的差距到底有多大！

译用户给 Claude Fable 5 一句指令“给你自己做个落地页，自由发挥，要2026最新设计趋势，要动态，要彩蛋”，几分钟后模型直接返回一个完整的单文件 HTML，无需用户改一行代码。更惊艳的是，它主动自己打开浏览器搜索 2026 设计趋势，自行调整配色和动效，还偷偷藏了 3 个彩蛋，完全不需要用户额外指示。用户计划让模型尝试一天全职全栈，从需求到上线独立完成一个个人网页，验证实际能力。

SemiAnalysis@SemiAnalysis_ · 2天前63

DeepSeek is going heavy-asset. On June 9, the company posted an opening for IDC planning engineers, a role explicitly scoped to the design and delivery of MW-to-GW scale infrastructure. It follows April's hiring of data center O&M engineers in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia. Taken together, this is the first time DeepSeek has fully shown its hand on owning compute infrastructure rather than just renting it.

译DeepSeek 正走向重资产模式。 6 月 9 日，该公司发布了 IDC 规划工程师的招聘信息，该职位明确涉及兆瓦级到吉瓦级基础设施的设计与交付。这紧随其 4 月在内蒙古乌兰察布招聘数据中心运维工程师。综合来看，这是 DeepSeek 首次完全展露其自持算力基础设施而非仅租赁的意图。

Yuchen Jin@Yuchenj_UW · 2天前47

While amazed by the Mythos/Fable benchmarks, I’m grateful Anthropic isn’t the only frontier AI company in the world. One company being able to build AI God is far riskier than multiple companies having that capability. Above all, I hope open-source AI keeps thriving.

译虽对Mythos/Fable基准测试感到惊叹，但我很感激Anthropic并非世界上唯一的前沿AI公司。 单一公司能构建AI之神，其风险远大于多家公司拥有这种能力。 最重要的是，我希望开源AI能持续繁荣。

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 2天前67

The Elder Scrolls 5 Fablewind (v2). Working inventory + items, working quests, level-system, mana/stamina/health working, buy/sell and a bit updated graphics. Lets see how good this geeds

译The Elder Scrolls 5 Fablewind (v2)。工作库存+物品，工作任务，等级系统，法力/耐力/生命值工作，买卖和一点更新的图形。 让我们看看这个有多好

elvis@omarsar0 · 2天前59

Every CEO and every engineer should be strategizing carefully to avoid AI model lock-in. More here: https://x.com/omarsar0/status/2063750411576844684?s=20

译Elvis Saravia指出每位CEO和工程师都应谨慎制定策略，避免AI模型锁定。引用推文以Anthropic为例，其做法是构建强大产品后单方面根据自身标准决定用户能否使用某些提示，此举虽合法但给企业带来业务连续性风险，尤其当各编码模型性能趋同时。建议转向开源且更便宜的替代方案以保持控制，并强调“控制层（control plane）”是自然解决方案。

Ethan Mollick@emollick · 2天前45

More true than ever.

译如果你在考虑接受一份工作，你可能想问你的token预算会是多少。这比以往更真实了。

宝玉@dotey · 2天前62

Claude Design 有一个完整的 Agent 运行环境，如果把它跟 Claude Code 比较的话，只是它基于浏览器和虚拟机来构建的。它有45个工具，有24个内置skills。运行方式也是基于 Agentic Loop。 所以它就是一个完整的 Agent Harness。

译Claude Design 具备完整 Agent 运行环境，基于浏览器和虚拟机，内置 45 个工具和 24 个 skills，采用 Agentic Loop。有团队质疑其仅为单个 Agent，宝玉回应：它就是一个完整的 Agent Harness。

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 2天前43

More realistic example of a one shotted game. Asked Fable 5 to recreate a game in the style of The Elder Scrolls 5 Morrowind. It one shotted quests, currencys and fighting, journal and minimap. And it worked.

译一个更现实的单次生成游戏的例子。要求Fable 5以《上古卷轴5：晨风》的风格重新创建一个游戏。它一次性生成了任务、货币、战斗、日志和小地图。而且它成功了。

Emad@EMostaque · 2天前17

anyone hiring witches to save training runs

译有人在雇女巫来拯救训练运行吗？

AYi@AYi_AInotes · 2天前43

Damn，AGI到来之后，品味和审美一定是一个人最核心的竞争力和最强的护城河， Claude Fable 5遇到审美和品味高的，输出质量高到爆炸，这效果真的绝了😭

译天哪，AGI到来之后，品味和审美一定是一个人最核心的竞争力和最强的护城河， Claude Fable 5遇到审美和品味高的，输出质量高到爆炸，这效果真的绝了😭

François Chollet@fchollet · 2天前72

Some considerations that many folks seem not to get: 1. It can be a bubble even if the tech works. (For instance, if the tech doesn't have a high-demand use case.) 2. It can be a bubble even if the tech works and has strong product-market fit. (For instance, if the tech cannot be economically viable.) 3. It can be a bubble even if the tech works, has strong product-market fit, and has a path to eventual economic viability. (For instance, if profitability takes too long to achieve or makes margin/competition assumptions that fail to materialize.) 4. It can be a bubble even if the tech works, has strong product-market fit, and is currently highly profitable. (For instance, if demand has a hard ceiling and growth stops once the ceiling is reached.) 5. It can be a bubble even if the tech works, has strong product-market fit, is currently highly profitable, and has unlimited future demand. Literally all it takes for something to be a bubble is for lots of people to over-enthusiastically bet their money on it, and subsequently get panicky. Importantly, bubbles can be attached both to things that are completely hogwash, like the Metaverse, and to world-changing developments like the Internet or railways. Bubbles don't care. They're brought into existence by the thoughts and feelings of investors, not by actual tech or products. "The bubble has burst" doesn't mean "the tech didn't work" or "people stopped using the tech." It only means that people got panicky, investor money dried up, and valuations collapsed. Internet adoption didn't stop in 2000.

译Francois Chollet 指出，许多人误以为只要技术有效、有市场、能盈利甚至需求无限，就不可能是泡沫。实际上，泡沫的定义是投资者过度乐观地押注后恐慌，与技术的实际价值无关。无论技术是像元宇宙那样的噱头，还是像互联网或铁路这样的变革性发明，都可能产生泡沫。泡沫破裂并不意味着技术失败或用户停止使用，只是投资资金枯竭、估值崩溃——就像2000年互联网泡沫并未阻止互联网普及。

elvis@omarsar0 · 2天前42

So the message I am getting is that I can't use Fable to further accelerate AI research and education. No company will decide that for me. Just an absolutely sad day for the research community. As a developer, I already felt ignored, and now this. Damn it!

译所以我得到的信息是，我无法使用Fable来进一步加速AI研究和教育。 没有任何公司能替我做这个决定。 对于研究社区来说，这绝对是个令人悲伤的日子。 作为一个开发者，我已经感到被忽视，现在又这样。 该死！

Epoch AI@EpochAIResearch · 2天前48

How should we think through various proposals for sharing the gains of AGI? According to @pawtrammell and @ansonwhho, the leading proposals for universal redistribution after AGI differ along a primary axis: how much direct control over capital they propose giving citizens. 🧵

译我们应该如何思考各种关于分享AGI收益的提案？ 根据@pawtrammell和@ansonwhho的观点，AGI后普遍再分配的主要提案在一个主要轴线上存在差异：它们提议给予公民多少对资本的直接控制权。🧵

向阳乔木@vista8 · 2天前32

对比 Fable 5，忽然觉得把大模型变便宜这件事儿真的很重要。 真的要夸下DeepSeek，实在是便宜。 每月用 v4 flash 翻译不少东西，一看账单才花几十块。 把自己的 AI 雷达 Skill 变成网站，支持双语对照翻译和 AI 侧边栏对话。 下周开源，本周先上网站，输入DeepSeek API能用 AI 功能，也能人工点评

译作者对比 Fable 5 后强调，把大模型变便宜至关重要。他称赞 DeepSeek 极低的成本——每月使用 v4 flash 翻译大量内容，账单仅几十元。作者将自己的 AI 雷达 Skill 做成网站，支持双语对照翻译和 AI 侧边栏对话。网站本周先上线（输入 DeepSeek API 即可使用 AI 功能，也可人工点评），下周将开源。

Fei-Fei Li@drfeifei · 2天前20

Scientific research is fundamental to advancing civilization and helping people globally to solve the most critical problems, from medicine to materials, from brain science to physics, and much beyond. This is only possible when scientists have access to the best tools of the time to conduct scientific research, including having access to AI-based tools.

译科学研究是推动文明进步、帮助全球人民解决最关键问题的基础——从医学到材料，从脑科学到物理学，乃至更广泛的领域。这只有在对科学家拥有时代最佳工具（包括基于AI的工具）来进行科学研究时才有可能实现。

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 2天前58

This is one of the most important parts of the Mythos 5 announcement: Drug design. Anthropic says its internal protein design experts used Mythos 5 to accelerate parts of the drug design process by around 10x. In one example, Mythos 5 used protein design and bioinformatics tools without (!) human assistance and matched or beat skilled human operators. It means the model could run parts of the early drug discovery loop itself: choosing binding sites, selecting tools, running protein design workflows, recovering from failures, and generating promising candidates. And here is what people still dont understand outside of our community: AI is moving from "assistant that explains science" to "agent that can actually execute parts of scientific work." The future of drug discovery may look less like one scientist manually testing ideas one by one, and more like thousands of AI-driven research loops running in parallel, with humans validating, interpreting, and deciding what actually moves forward. I keep thinking about what Demis Hassabis said: we are entering the golden age of science. There is probably no doubt about that anymore. Medicines are being developed faster and more precisely, and previously incurable diseases are becoming treatable.

译Anthropic内部蛋白质设计专家使用Mythos 5将药物设计部分流程加速约10倍。在一例中，Mythos 5无需人类协助即可自主使用蛋白质设计和生物信息学工具，匹配或超越熟练人类操作，能独立完成早期药物发现中的结合位点选择、工具调用、工作流运行、故障恢复和候选生成。在Gemini 3.5 Pro和GPT-5.6临近发布的背景下，Anthropic凭借Mythos/Fable进入新层级，给竞争对手带来压力，其IPO前景也因此提升。

ChatGPT@ChatGPTapp · 2天前69

Go #MessiMode Upload a photo of yourself and try this prompt: “Make my hair the colors of my country flag but keep it natural-looking. If no country or image is provided, ask."

译Go #MessiMode 上传一张你的照片并尝试这个提示词：“将我的头发变成本国国旗的颜色，但要看起来自然。如果没有提供国家或图片，请询问。”

AYi@AYi_AInotes · 2天前71

怎么让Claude Fable 5做一个关于他自己的网站？ 这个提示词结构很顶，完全可以拿去让Fable做一个个人网站啊，效果真的很炸🤯 Prompt: 生成一个关于你自己的登录页面：Claude Fable 5， 你完全自由，但要确保它视觉吸引人，简洁，互动性强，带有动态动态效果，彩蛋， 搜索并使用2026设计趋势。

译推文分享了一个让 Claude Fable 5 生成关于自身登录页面的提示词结构。提示词要求完全自由，视觉吸引人、简洁、互动性强、包含动态效果和彩蛋，并搜索使用 2026 设计趋势。引用推文显示结果令人惊艳。作者认为该提示词结构同样适用于创建个人网站。

OpenAI Developers@OpenAIDevs · 2天前40

For musician and composer @sound4movement, Codex works like a studio assistant. He asks for a piano track in 3/4, sets the tempo and harmony, then describes how the performance should build. Codex handles the setup in Ableton Live. Michael stays focused on the creative work.

译对于音乐人和作曲家 @sound4movement，Codex 就像一个工作室助手。他要求一个 3/4 拍的钢琴轨道，设置速度和和声，然后描述表演应该如何构建。Codex 在 Ableton Live 中处理设置。Michael 则专注于创作工作。

DogeDesigner@cb_doge · 2天前22

The future of AI is multiplanetary.

译AI的未来是多行星的。

SemiAnalysis@SemiAnalysis_ · 2天前62

AI market beat 2025 expectations by massive margins. But here's what's wild about the composition of this beat.

译AI市场以巨大幅度击败了2025年的预期。但关于这次超预期的构成，疯狂之处在于——