Google DeepMind 联合创始人兼 CEO Demis Hassabis 在新采访中表示,社会需要意识到我们没有多少时间准备了,人类正站在奇点的山麓。他认为 AGI 可能只需几年,大约 2030 年(±1 年)就能实现。推文作者评论指出,真正的颠覆不在于 AGI 何时精准到达,而在于机构能否适应——后 AGI 世界技术变化远快于人类系统响应速度,学校、公司、政府均未做好准备。若 AGI 按前沿实验室时间线到来,这一滞后将压缩成危险鸿沟。
Demis Hassabis's new interview:
"Society needs to hear that because we don't have long to prepare for what that means. We are standing in the foothills of the singularity now.
..which is AGI. I believe that we are only a few years away from that, maybe around 2030, plus or minus a year. "
~ Demis Hassabis, Co-Founder and CEO of Google DeepMind
It is going to be enormously profound, I think. The future, in my view, is still to be written. But these next few years are going to be very critical as to which way that will go, and how we collectively want that to look."
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IMO, The real disruption is not whether AGI arrives exactly in 2030, plus or minus a year, but whether institutions can adapt, as in post-AGI world, technology will change much faster than human systems can respond.
Schools still train people for stable professions, companies still organize work around human bottlenecks, and governments still regulate after harm becomes visible.
AGI, if it arrives anywhere near the frontier-lab timelines, compresses that lag into a dangerous gap.
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From "Stanford Graduate School of Business" YouTube channel, (link in comment)