François Chollet@fchollet · XFrancois Chollet 指出，许多人误以为只要技术有效、有市场、能盈利甚至需求无限，就不可能是泡沫。实际上，泡沫的定义是投资者过度乐观地押注后恐慌，与技术的实际价值无关。无论技术是像元宇宙那样的噱头，还是像互联网或铁路这样的变革性发明，都可能产生泡沫。泡沫破裂并不意味着技术失败或用户停止使用，只是投资资金枯竭、估值崩溃——就像2000年互联网泡沫并未阻止互联网普及。
Some considerations that many folks seem not to get：
1. It can be a bubble even if the tech works. （For instance， if the tech doesn't have a high-demand use case.）
2. It can be a bubble even if the tech works and has strong product-market fit. （For instance， if the tech cannot be economically viable.）
3. It can be a bubble even if the tech works， has strong product-market fit， and has a path to eventual economic viability. （For instance， if profitability takes too long to achieve or makes margin/competition assumptions that fail to materialize.）
4. It can be a bubble even if the tech works， has strong product-market fit， and is currently highly profitable. （For instance， if demand has a hard ceiling and growth stops once the ceiling is reached.）
5. It can be a bubble even if the tech works， has strong product-market fit， is currently highly profitable， and has unlimited future demand.
Literally all it takes for something to be a bubble is for lots of people to over-enthusiastically bet their money on it， and subsequently get panicky.
Importantly， bubbles can be attached both to things that are completely hogwash， like the Metaverse， and to world-changing developments like the Internet or railways. Bubbles don't care. They're brought into existence by the thoughts and feelings of investors， not by actual tech or products.
"The bubble has burst" doesn't mean "the tech didn't work" or "people stopped using the tech." It only means that people got panicky， investor money dried up， and valuations collapsed. Internet adoption didn't stop in 2000.